Martin Dubrovsky's web page 

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of CR, Prague, Czech Republic


Last modified: 2006-November-15   


PUBLICATIONS and PRESENTATIONS *** RESEARCH TOPICS (old) *** SOFTWARE (old) *** LINKS (old) *** It's me...


 

PUBLICATIONS

You will find here abstracts, figures, tables, and even complete HTML versions of some papers. If you want a paper version, if you have some comments or if you'll use them in your work, I'll be happy to get an e-mail from you!

1988-93 * 1994-97 * 1998 * 1999 * 2000 * 2001 * 2002 * 2003 * 2004 * 2005

 

1988-1993

  1. Dubrovsky M. and Skoloud O., 1988: The method of measuring the instant freezing nucleus spectrum in a precipitation sample. In: Atmospheric Aerosols and Nucleation (Lecture Notes In Physics, vol 309), G.Vali and P.E.Wagner, eds., Berlin: Springer-Verlag, p.701-704.
     
  2. Dubrovsky M. and Skoloud O., 1989: Measurement of freezing nucleus content in a water sample - evaluation of the method. Studia geoph. et geod. 33, 287-304.
     
  3. Bilkova E., Dubrovsky M., Petera V., Skoloud O., 1989: Metod izmerenija nukleacionnoj aktivnosti vody. Trudy CAO, 174, p.111.
     
  4. Dubrovsky M., Petera V., Sikyta B. and Hegerova H., 1989: Measurement of the ice nucleation activity of Pseudomonas syringae CCM 4073. Biotechnology Techniques 3, 173-178. [abstract *** whole article /scanned copy/]
     
  5. Sikyta B., Hegerova H., Dubrovsky M. and Petera V., 1989: Cultivation and properties of ice-nucleation active bacteria Pseudomonas syringae CCM 4073. Biotechnology Letters 11, 307-312.
     
  6. Dubrovsky M., Sramek L., 1990: Ledové baktérie. Sbornik referatu - Agrometeorologická konference, VUZ Brno.
     
  7. Dubrovsky M. (editor), 1990: HRADEX '89 - The report on the field experiment. UFA CSAV.
     
  8. Dubrovsky M. and Rezacova D., 1991: Construction of the decision tree and its application in prediction of the convective phenomena. Annales Geophysicae, 9 (suppl. II). [=abstract]
     
  9. Rezacova D., Pesice P., Dubrovsky M., 1991: 12 h forecast of convective phenomena. In: Proc."Mountaneous meteorology, climatology and aerology of the lower layers of troposphere", Stará Lesná, 1991
     
  10. Dubrovsky M., Rezacova D., Skoloud O. and Sokol Z., 1992: Very short range probability forecasting of convective weather. Annales Geophysicae, 10 (suppl. II) [=abstract]
     
  11. Dubrovsky M., 1992: Freezing nucleus spectra in the rain samples and their possible application on cloud conditions. In: Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols (ed.: Fukuta N. and Wagner P.E.), (Proceedings of 13th Int. Conf. on Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols, Salt Lake City, Utah) A. Deepak Publishing, p.321-324.
     
  12. Dubrovsky, M. 1993 Extraction of the Probabilistic Prognostic Function from the Finite Size Training data sample. Annales Geophysicae, 11 [Supplement II], C195 [=abstract]


    1994-1997
     

  13. Dubrovsky M., 1994: Probabilistic prediction of thunderstorm occurrence. Meteorological Bulletin, 47, 103-112.
     
  14. Dubrovsky M., 1994: Stochastic modelling of meteorological time series: application to climate change impact studies in agriculture. [in Czech] in: proc. conf. Climate Change and Agriculture, VSZ Brno, 107-112.
     
  15. Dubrovsky M., 1995: The Binary Decision Tree: The Growing Algorithm and Application to Thunderstorm Forecasting. Studia geophysicae et geophysica et geodaetica, vol 39 (1995), No.1, p.84-100 [abstract *** full paper (Word97)]
     
  16. Kalvova J. and Dubrovsky M., 1995: Assessments of the limits between which daily average values of total ozone can normally vary. Meteorological Bulletin, 48, 9-17 [abstract * PDF]
     
  17. Dubrovsky M. and Sokol Z., 1995: Thunderstorm forecasting for a territory of the Czech republic. Annales Geophysicae, 13 [Supplement II] , C284. [=abstract]
     
  18. Kalvová J. and Dubrovsky M., 1995: Assessment of the standard annual course of total ozone. Annales Geophysicae, 13 [Supplement III] , C717. [=abstract]
     
  19. Dubrovsky M., 1995: MET&ROLL: The weather generator for investigating potential impacts of climatic change on agriculture. Annales Geophysicae, 13 [Supplement II] , C334 [=abstract]
     
  20. Dubrovsky M., 1996: Preparing meteorological data for the crop growth model "CERES". In: Roznovsky J. and Litschmann T. (editors): Contemporary Agroclimatology (proceedings of the conference, Velke Bilovice, Czech Republic, September 6-9, 1995), Czech bioclimatological society and Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry, p.153-160.
     
  21. Dubrovsky M., 1996: Met&Roll: The weather generator for the crop growth model. In: proc. of Regional Workshop on Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation, Prague 1995, Institute of Atmospheric Physics - U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, D.C., p.285-292.
     
  22. Dubrovsky M., 1995: Statistical analysis of radar data obtained at the radar observatory in Praha-Libus in the period 1981-1988. Meteorological Bulletin, 48, 165-171.
     
  23. Dubrovsky M., 1996: Met&Roll: the stochastic generator of daily weather series for the crop growth model. Meteorological Bulletin, 49, 97-105.
     
  24. Dubrovsky M., 1996: Validation of the stochastic weather generator Met&Roll. Meteorological Bulletin,49, 129-138.
     
  25. Dubrovský M. and Huth R., 1996: Validation of the MC/AR weather generator (WG) and design of the WG linked with circulation patterns. Annales Geophysicae, 14 [Supplement 2] C338. [=abstract]
     
  26. Dubrovsky M., 1996: Statistical methods of very short range forecasting of meteorological phenomena. Doctoral Thesis. Charles University, Prague, pp.120.
  27. Dubrovsky M., 1997: Creating Daily Weather Series With Use of the Weather Generator. Environmetrics 8, 409-424

    .

    1998
     

  28. Dubrovsky M. and Kalvova J., 1998: The daily total ozone: the mean annual cycle and correlation with meteorological conditions. In: Atmospheric Ozone (Proc. XVIII Quadrennial Ozone Symposium, L'Aquila, Italy, 12-21 Sept. 1996), p.33-36. [grant: GA CR 205/96/1554]
     
  29. Dubrovsky M., 1998: Estimating climate change impacts on crop yields with use of crop growth model and weather generator. In: Proc. 14th Conf. Prob. Stat., AMS, 86-87. [grant: GACR 205/96/1669]
     
  30. Dubrovsky M. and Huth R., 1998: Validation of ECHAM GCM in terms of circulation patterns and their interdiurnal variability. In: Proc. 14th Conf. Prob. Stat., AMS, 13-16. [grants: GA CR 205/96/1669, GA CR 205/96/1670, GA CAS A3-060-605]
     
  31. Dubrovsky M., Stastna M., Zalud Z., 1998: Simulace vynosu kukurice dynamickym rustovym modelem pro vybrane scenare klimaticke zmeny. In: Globalni klimaticka zmena: ucinky, stav a uroven reseni problemu v meritku Ceske republiky (proceedings of the conference). [grant: GACR 205/96/1669]
     
  32. Dubrovsky M. 1998: The dependence of the solar UV-B radiation on total ozone and solar zenith angle. Annales Geophysicae, 16 [Supplement II] , C754 [=abstract] [grant: GA CR 205/96/1554]
     
  33. Dubrovsky M. 1998 and Huth R.: Circulation modes and their interdiurnal variability in the ECHAM GCM. Annales Geophysicae, 16 [Supplement II] , C710 [=abstract] [grants: GA CR 205/96/1669; GA CR 205/96/1670, GA CR 205/97/P159]
     
  34. Dubrovsky M., Janouch M., 1998: Analysis of UV-B irradiances measured simultaneously at two stations in Czechia. in: Abstracts of the European Conference on atmospheric UV radiation, Helsinki, Finland, June 29 - July 2, 1998, Finnish Meteorological Institute, p.65. [=abstract] [grant: GA CR 205/96/1554]
     
  35. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., Stastna M., 1998: Modelling Climate Change impacts on Maize Yields in the Czech Republic. in: Abstracts from 2nd European Conference on Applied Climatology, Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Wien, Publ. Nr. 384, p.196. [=abstract] [PDF paper published on CD-ROM proceedings /7 pages/] [grants: GA CR 205/96/1669 and GA CR 205/97/P159]


    1999
     

  36. Dubrovsky M. and Huth R., 1999: Comparison of three GCMs in terms of circulation modes and their interdiurnal variability. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, vol.1, No.2, p.569 (Proceedings of General Assembly of European Geophysical Society, 19-23 April 1999; The Hague, Netherlands).
     
  37. Dubrovsky, M. - Lastovicka, J., 1999: The correlation between geopotential height and temperature patterns in lower stratosphere and total ozone. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Space and Planetary Sciences, 1 [3] 687. (Proceedings of General Assembly of European Geophysical Society, 19-23 April 1999; The Hague, Netherlands).
     
  38. Nemesova I., Kalvova J., and Dubrovsky M., 1999: Climate change projections based on GCM-simulated daily data. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica 43, 201-222. [grants: GACR 205/96/1669, GACR 205/97/P159, GA CAS A3-060-605]
     
  39. Dubrovsky M. and Zalud Z., 1999: Application of the weather generator for crop growth simulations in climate change impact studies. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.169-170. [PDF] [grant: GACR 205/97/P159]
     
  40. Dubrovsky, 1999: Met&Roll: The weather generator for crop growth modelling. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.291-292. [PDF] [grant: GACR 205/97/P159]
     
  41. Zalud Z., Dubrovsky M., Stastna M., 1999: Modelling climate change impacts on maize and wheat growth and development. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.277-278. [download the PDF version]
     
  42. Buchtele J., Buchtelova M., Fortova, M., Dubrovský M., 1999: Runoff changes in Czech river Basins - the outputs of rainfall - runoff simulations using different climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 47 (No.3) 180-194 [Grant: GA AV CR(CZ) A3060605] [PDF]

       

    2000
     

  43. Dubrovsky M., 2000: Analysis of UV-B irradiances measured simultaneously at two stations in the Czech Republic. Journal of Geophysical Research 105, 4907-4913  [grant: GA CR 205/96/1554] [Impact Factor/2001/=2.68] [PDF paper]
     
  44. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z. and Stastna M., 2000: Sensitivity of CERES-Maize yields to statistical structure of daily weather series. Climatic Change 46, 447- 472. [grants: GACR 205/96/1669, GACR 205/97/P159]  *** [Impact Factor/2000/=1.916] [abstract; full paper (PDF)]
     
  45. Dubrovsky M., 2000: Variability of daily and annual cycles of mean UV-B irradiance related to total ozone variability. in: Chemistry and Radiation Changes in the Ozone Layer (eds.: C.S.Zerefos et al.) (NATO Science Series, Series C: Mathematical and Physical Sciences, vol. 557), Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands, 179-186. [full paper (PDF)]
     
  46. Zalud Z., Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., 2000: "Change of Spring Barley Production Potential Using Crop Model CERES-Barley" [in Czech; Stanoveni zmeny produkcního potencialu jarniho jecmene s vyuzitim rustoveho modelu CERES-Barley]. Rostlinna Vyroba 46, 433-438. [Impact Factor/2001/=0.256]
     
  47. Dubrovsky M.,  Zalud Z., 2000: Impacts of climate change and climate variability on maize yields. Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol 2 (XXV General Assembly of EGS, 25-29 April 2000; Nice, France). CD-ROM
     
  48. Marvan D. and Dubrovský M., 2000: Modelling daily precipitation occurrence with Markov chain - the role of the limitness of the learning sample. Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol 2 (XXV General Assembly of EGS, 25-29 April 2000; Nice, France). CD-ROM
     
  49. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., Stastna M., Trnka M, 2000: Effect of climate change and climate variability on crop yields. in: Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Applied Climatology. (publisher: I.A.T.A. – C.N.R. /Istituto per l’ Agrometeorologia e l’ Analisi Ambientale Applicata all’ Agricoltura/; editors: M. A. Falchi and A. Omodei Zorini) October 16-20, Pisa, Italy. [published on CD-ROM (PDF file) ; 6 pages]


    2001

  50. Huth R., Kysely J., Dubrovsky M., 2001: Time structure of observed, GCM-simulated, downscaled, and stochastically generated daily temperature series. Journal of Climate, 14, 4047-4061.[Impact Factor/2001/=3.32] [PDF]

  51. Kysely J., Huth R., Dubrovsky M., 2001: Simulation of extreme temperature events using general circulation models, statistical downscaling and stochastic generator. [in Czech; Simulace extremnich teplotnich jevu globalnimi cirkulacnimi modely, statistickym downscalingem a stochastickym generatorem] Meteorological Bulletin 54, 73-82 [Impact Factor=none]

  52. Eitzinger J., Zalud Z., Alexandrov V., Diepen van C. A., Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., Semeradova, D., Oberforster M., 2001: A local simulation study on the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in north-eastern Austria. Austrian Journal of Agricultural Research, 52 (4),199-212 [Impact Factor= none] [abstract].


    2002

  53. Stastna M., Trnka M., Kren J., Dubrovsky M. and Zalud Z., 2002: Evaluation of the CERES Models in Different Production Regions of the Czech Republic. Rostlinna Vyroba 48, 125-132. [Impact Factor/2001/=0.237] [paper (PDF)]

  54. Zalud Z., Dubrovsky M., 2002: Modelling climate change impacts on maize growth and development in the Czech republic. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 72, 85-102. [Impact Factor/2001/=0.825] [paper (PDF)]


    2003

  55. Huth R., Kysely J., Dubrovsky M., 2003: Simulation of Surface Air Temperature by GCMs, Statistical Downscaling and Weather Generator: Higher-Order Statistical Moments. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica 47, 203-216 [Impact Factor/2001/=0.680] [abstract]

  56. Eitzinger J., Stastna M., Zalud Z., Dubrovsky M., 2003: A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on winter wheat production under different climate change scenarios. Agricultural Water Management 61, 195-217. [doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(03)00024-6] [Impact Factor/2001/=0.526] [PDF]

  57. Janous D., Hadas P., Dubrovsky M., 2003: Dopady klimaticke zmeny v Moravskoslezskych Beskydech (Impacts of climate change on forests in Moravskoslezske Beskydy Mts.). Lesnicka prace 82, No.2, p.24-25. [HTML]

  58. Hejzlar J., Dubrovsky M., Buchtele J., Ruzicka M., 2003: The Apparent and Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Inferred Concentration of Dissolved Organic Matter in a Temperate Stream (the Malse River, South Bohemia). the Science of Total Environment 310, 143-152. [Impact Factor/2001/=1.396] [PDF]


    2004

  59. Eitzinger J., Trnka M., Hosch J., Zalud Z., Dubrovsky M., 2004: Comparison of CERES, WOFOST and SWAP models in simulating soil water content during growing season under different soil conditions. Ecological Modelling 171, 223-246. [PDF]

  60. Dubrovsky M., Buchtele J., Zalud Z., 2004: High-Frequency and Low-Frequency Variability in Stochastic Daily Weather Generator and Its Effect on Agricultural and Hydrologic Modelling. Climatic Change 63 (No.1-2), 145-179. [Impact Factor/2001/=1.87] [PDF]

  61. Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., Semeradova D., Zalud Z., 2004: Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77, 229-249 (published online: 30 March, 2004) DOI: 10.1007/s00704-004-0035-x [PDF]

  62. Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., 2004: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Spring Barley Production in the Czech Republic. Climatic Change 64 (No. 1-2), 227-255. [Impact Factor/2001/=1.87] [PDF]


    2005

  63. Kysely J., Dubrovsky M., 2005: Simulation of extreme temperature events by a stochastic weather generator: effects of interdiurnal and interannual variability reproduction. Int.J.Climatol. 25, 251-269. [DOI: 10.1002/joc.112] [abstract] [PDF]

  64. Trnka M., Zalud Z., Eitzinger J., Dubrovsky M., 2005: Global solar radiation in Central European lowland estimated by various empirical formulae. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131, 54-76. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.05.002 *** PDF]

  65. Dubrovsky M., Nemesova I., Kalvova J., 2005: Uncertainties in climate change scenarios for the Czech Republic. Climate Research 29, 139-156. [PDF]


    2006

  66. Dubrovsky M., Metelka L., Semeradova D., Trnka D., Halasova O., Ruzicka M., Nemesova I., Kliegrova S., Zalud Z, 2006: The CaliM&Ro Project: Calibration of Met&Roll Weather Generator for sites without or with incomplete meteorological observations. in: Weather Types Classifications, Proc. 5th EMS Annual Meeting, Session AW8, O.E.Tveito and M.Pasqui, Eds. p.98-107. [PDF]

  67. Trnka M., Eitzinger J., Gruszczynski G., Buchgraber K., Resch R., Schaumberger A, 2006: A simple statistical model for predicting herbage production from permanent grassland. Grass and Forage Science 61 (3): 253-271. [IF=0.685]. [PDF]

    2007

  68. Hlavinka P., Trnka M., Semerádová D., Žalud Z., Dubrovský M., Eitzinger J., Weihs P., Simic S., Blumthaler M., Schreder J., 2007: Empirical model for estimating daily erythemal UV radiation in the Central European region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 16, 183-190 [IF=0.833] [PDF]

  69. Trnka M, Hlavinka P., Semeradova D., Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., Mozny M., 2007: Agricultural drought and spring barley yields in the Czech Republic. Plant Soil Environ., 53, 2007 (7): 306–316 [PDF]

  70. Trnka M., Muska F., Semeradova D., Dubrovsky M., Kocmankova E., Zalud Z., 2007: European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate. Ecological Modelling 207 (2007) 61–84 [PDF]

  71. Trnka M., Eitzinger J., Kapler P., Dubrovsky M., Semeradova D., Zalud Z., Formayer H., 2007: "Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models". Sensors 2007 (7), 2330-2362. [IF = 1.3] [PDF]


    2008


    2009

  72. Dubrovský, M., Svoboda, M., Trnka, M., Hayes, M., Wilhite, D., Žalud, Z., Hlavinka, P. (2009): Application of Relative Drought Indices to Assess Climate Change Impact on Drought Conditions in Czechia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 96, 155-171.

  73. Hlavinka P., Trnka M., Semerádová D., Dubrovský M., Zalud Z., Mozný M., 2009: The effect of drought on the seasonal yield variability of key crops in the Czech Republic. Agric. Forest. Meteorol. 149: 431-442. [doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.09.004]

  74. Trnka M., Eitzinger J.,Hlavinka P., Dubrovský M., Semerádová D., Štepánek P., Thaler S., Žalud Z, Možný M., Formayer H., 2009: Climate-driven changes of production regions in Central Europe. Plant Soil Environment 55 (6): 257-266. [PDF]

  75. Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., Svoboda M.D., Semeradova D., Hayes M.J., Zalud Z., Wilhite D.A. (2009): Developing a Regional Drought Climatology for the Czech Republic for 1961-2000. International Journal of Climatology, 29: 863–883.


    2010


  76. Trnka M., Eitzinger J., Dubrovsky M., Semeradova D., Stepanek P., Hlavinka P., Balek J., Skalak P., Farda A., Formayer H., Zalud Z., 2010: Is rainfed crop production in central Europe at risk? Using a regional climate model to produce high resolution agroclimatic information for decision makers. Journal of Agricultural Science, 148, 639-656.

  77. Kocmánková E, Trnka M, Eitzinger J, Formayer H, Dubrovsky M, Semerádová D, Zalud Z, Juroch J, Mozny M, 2010: Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region. Climate Research 44, 95-105 [ PDF]

  78. Thaler S, Eitzinger J, Rischbeck PM, Dubrovsky M, Trnka M (2010) Vulnerability of crops to climate change in Northeastern
    Austria. Bulgarian Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology 15: 50-61.


    2011

  79. Rötter RP, Palosuo T, Virtanen NK, Dubrovsky M, Salo T, Ristolainen A, Fronzek S, Aikasalo R, Trnka M, Carter TR (2011): What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4°C? A model based assessment. European Journal of Agronomy 35: 205– 214.

  80. Trnka M, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC, Skjelvĺg AO, Eitzinger J, Seguin B, Peltonen-Sainio P, Rötter R, Iglesias A, Orlandini S, Dubrovský M, Hlavinka P, Balek J, Eckersten H, Cloppet E, Calanca P, Gobin A, Vucetic V, Nejedlik P, Kumar S, Lalic B, Mestre A, Rossi F, Kozyra J, Alexandrov V, Semerádová D, Žalud Z (2011): Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Global Change Biology 17: 2298–2318.

  81. Trnka M, Brazdil R, Dubrovsky M., Semeradova D., Stepanek P, Dobrovolny P, Mozny M, Eitzinger J, Málek J, Formayer H, Balek J, Zalud Z, 2011: A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 31, 634-641 (DOI 10.1007/s13593-011-0038-9)

  82. Zalud Z, Trnka M, Hlavinka P, Dubrovsky M, Svobodova E, Semeradova D, Bartosova L, Balek J, Eitzinger J. Mozny M, 2011: Climate Change Impacts on Czech Agriculture. in: Climate Change - Socioeconomic Effects (edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand), ISBN 978-953-307-411-5; Publisher: InTech, September 2011

  83. Trnka M, Eitzinger J, Semeradova D, Hlavinka P, Balek J, Dubrovsky M, Kubu G, Stepanek P, Thaler S, Mozny M, Zalud Z (2011): Expected changes in agroclimatic conditions in Central Europe. Climatic Change 108: 261-289.


    2012

  84. Thaler S, Eitzinger J, Trnka M., Dubrovsky M (2012): Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in Central Europe
    The Journal of Agricultural Science 150: 537-555.
  85. Hirschi M., Stoeckli S., Dubrovsky M., Spirig C., Calanca P., Rotach M.W. , Fischer A. M., Duffy B., Samietz J. (2012): Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland. Earth Syst. Dynam. 3: 33–47. , 2012 (www.earth-syst-dynam.net/3/33/2012/) (doi:10.5194/esd-3-33-2012.

  86. Eitzinger J, Trnka M, Semeradova D, Thaler S, Svobodova E, Hlavinka P, Siska B, Takac J, Malatinska L, Novakova M, Dubrovsky M, Zalud Z (2012 - FirstView, published online): Regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe – hotspots, regional differences and common trends. Journal of Agricultural Science, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021859612000767


    2013

  87. Trnka M, Kersebaum KC, Eitzinger J, Hayes M, Hlavinka P, Svoboda M, Dubrovsky M, Semeradova D, Wardlow B, Pokorny E, Mozny M, Wilhite D, Zalud Z (2013): Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States. Climatic Change 120: 405-418.

  88. Svobodova E, Trnka M, Zalud Z, Semeradova D, Dubrovsky M, Eitzinger J, Stepanek P, Brazdil R (2013) Climate variability and potential distribution of selected pest species in south Moravia and north-east Austria in the past 200 years – lessons for the future. Journal of Agricultural Science, doi:10.1017/S0021859613000099

(files of publications of Czech Academy of Sciences - - - publications of Inst. Atmos. Physics till 2004)

 


presentations on conferences, workshops, ...:

type: [I]=invited oral; [O]=oral; [P]=poster

topic: [W] weather generator; [C] crop modelling; [G] GCM validation; [O] ozone; [U] UV-B radiation, [T] thunderstorm forecasting with the use of statistical methods; [IN] ice nucleation; [S] Climate Change Scenarios; [H] hydrological modelling;

1988-1993

1994-1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

 

 

RESEARCH TOPICS

topic  "priority"
(***** = highest) 
note 
- weather generator
-
climate change scenarios
-
climate change impact studies

*****

engaged in grant projects 
ozone and UV-B radiation

****

engaged in project CANDIDOZ
statistical methods of thunderstorm forecasting

** 

PhD thesis (defended 1997) 
ice nucleation

*

my first research topic ("active" till 1990) 

 

Weather Generator and Climate Change Impact Studies

Met&Roll

... is a WGEN-like daily Weather Generator which allows to generate synthetic series of 4 daily weather characteristics: daily sum of global solar radiation, temperature maximum, temperature minimum and daily precipitation amount. The synthetic series may be generated for both present and changed climate conditions. Development of Met&Roll was started in1994 within the frame of the Czech Republic's Country Study project. Met&Roll is used to provide meteorological data for crop growth simulations.


WeGet - stochastic weather generator linked with circulation

Recently, I started to develop WeGet[earlier I called it Met&Roll-2 (Dubrovsky, 1997)] a weather generator linking the surface weather characteristics with upper-air circulation. In WeGet, the four weather characteristics considered in Met&Roll are conditioned (linear regression) on geopotential height pattern which is characterised by Principal Components (developed by Radan Huth). The series of PC scores is either stochastically generated (first order autoregressive model) or taken from GCM simulations.

Together with Radan Huth (Dubrovsky and Huth, 1998), we used the first order autoregressive model to validate interdiurnal variability of circulation pattern simulated by ECHAM GCM.


References: (see PUBLICATIONS and PRESENTATIONS for more references)

  1. Dubrovsky M., 1995: Preparing meteorological data for the crop growth model "CERES". In: Contemporary Agroclimatology (proceedings of the conference). Velke Bilovice, September 6-9, 1995.
  2. Dubrovsky M., 1995: Met&Roll: The weather generator for the crop growth model. In: Regional Workshop on Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation (proceedings), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Praha - U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, D.C.
  3. Dubrovsky M., 1996a: Met&Roll: the stochastic generator of daily weather series for the crop growth model. Meteorological Bulletin, 49, 97-105.
  4. Dubrovsky M., 1996b: Validation of the stochastic weather generator Met&Roll. Meteorological Bulletin,49, 129-138.
  5. Dubrovsky M., (1997): Creating Daily Weather Series With Use of the Weather Generator. Environmetrics8, 409-424.
  6. Dubrovsky M., 1998: Estimating climate change impacts on crop yields with use of crop growth model and weather generator. In: Proc. 14th Conf. Prob. Stat., AMS.
  7. Dubrovsky M. and Huth R., 1998: Validation of ECHAM GCM in terms of circulation patterns and their interdiurnal variability. In: Proc. 14th Conf. Prob. Stat., AMS.
  8. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., Stastna M., 1998: Modelling Climate Change impacts on Maize Yields in the Czech Republic. in: Abstracts from 2nd European Conference on Applied Climatology, Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Wien, Publ. Nr. 384, p.196. [=abstract] [PDF 4page paper published on CD-ROM]
  9. Dubrovsky M. and Zalud Z., 1999: Application of the weather generator for crop growth simulations in climate change impact studies. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.169-170. [download the PDF version]
  10. Dubrovsky, 1999: Met&Roll: The weather generator for crop growth modelling. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.291-292. [download the PDF version]
  11. Zalud Z., Dubrovsky M., Stastna M., 1999: Modelling climate change impacts on maize and wheat growth and development. In: Proc. International Symposium Modelling Cropping Systems, 21-23 June 1999, Lleida, Spain, p.277-278.[download the PDF version]
  12. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z., Stastna M., Trnka M, 2000: Effect of climate change and climate variability on crop yields. 3rd European Conference on Applied Climatology. October 16-20, Pisa, Italy. [published on CD-ROM (PDF file) ***  poster]
  13. Dubrovsky M., Zalud Z. and Stastna M., 2000: Sensitivity of CERES-Maize yields to statistical structure of daily weather series. Climatic Change 46, 447- 472. [grants: GACR 205/96/1669, GACR 205/97/P159]  *** [abstract]
  14. Dubrovsky M. et al., 2001: "Interdiurnal and interannual variability in stochastic daily weather generator: Modelling and the role in agricultural and hydrologic studies." in: 8th International Meeting in Statistical Climatology. Lueneburg, Germany, 12-16 March 2001

statistical methods of thunderstorm forecasting

This was my #1 research topic in 1991 - 1995 and the theme of my PhD dissertation (defended on January 1997). At present, I am not involved in any project concerning thunderstorm forecasting.

I have done:

I correlated thunderstorm occurrence (considered as a binary predictand) with predictors of several types. The greatest stress was put on predictors derived from single station aerological soundings (especially instability indices) and larger scale predictors (especially various characteristics of vorticity). The regression function has a form:

where Pr^ is a prognosed probability of thunderstorm occurence, Y is a binary predictand, x is a predictor vector and  f  is a prognostic function.

In my work, following items were given an attention:

  1. definition of the predictand
  2. selection of predictors
  3. selection of the prognostic function (candidates: logistic regression, REEP, binary decision tree [figure, details] and k Nearest Neighbours)

Most of my work is sumarised in my dissertation.

References:

atmospheric ozone and UV radiation

Motivation:

I am engaged in the joint grant project of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (Karel Vanicek, Martin Stanek, Michal Janouch) and Institute of Physics of Atmosphere (Otakar Skoloud, Martin Dubrovsky). The project aims at:

  1. monitoring of biologically active UV-B solar radiation
  2. assessment of relations between total ozone and UV-B radiation
  3. creation of the information system for operative reports on UV-B levels and exposure times recommended for population.

Questions that interest me:

Presently ...

... I am processing time series of 10-minute sums of UV-B radiation measured by RB-Biometers simultaneously in two locations: Hradec Kralove (285 m a.s.l.; the seat of the Solar and Ozone Observatory of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute) and Milesovka (836 m a.s.l.; the observatory /managed by Institute of Atmospheric Physics/ on the top of the isolated hill northwest from Prague). The analysis of the series obtained during one year (96/8 - 97/7) is focused on

  1. comparison of the UV-B radiation regime in the two locations, and
  2. determining the dependence of UV-B radiation on total ozone and solar zenith angle.

References:

ice nucleation

Ice nucleation was my first research topic. Now it's only a history for me. But maybe you will find some interesting information in following papers:

References:


 
 

SOFTWARE

program note
Met&Roll WGEN-like 4-variate daily weather generator
Rolower RObust LOcally WEighted REgression
Mallorn Radiation modell for a tree stand
BIDET BInary DEcision Tree


 

ROLOWER

... is a program for RObust LOcally WEighted REgression. More information about the method may be found in: SOLOW (1988; J.Climate1, 290-296).

download ROLOWER

The program was used to smooth annual cycle of total ozone (Kalvova J. and Dubrovsky M., 1995) to smooth annual cycle of characteristics considered in weather generator Met&Roll
     


MALLORN

... is a program for modelling radiation fields in a tree stand.


BIDET (binary decision tree)

... is a program for building the binary decision tree. The predictand is a binary variable (representing event occurrence), predictors are either continuous or binary variables. Given a learning sample, the BIDET constructs the optimal tree-structured graph which is a representation of the regression estimate of conditional probability of event occurrence.

More information on the underlying mathematics and application to thunderstorm forecasting may be found in

Dubrovsky M., 1995: The Binary Decision Tree: The Growing Algorithm and Application to Thunderstorm Forecasting. Studia geophysicae et geophysica et geodaetica, vol 39 (1995), No.1, p.84-100.
 
 


Hi! It's me...

born: yes
sex: yes
my favourite music: Smashing Pumpkins, Pearl Jam, Antonio Vivaldi, Oldrich Janota, Philip Glass, Lou Reed, Dead Can Dance... and many others
my favourite book: J.R.R.Tolkien - The Lord Of the Rings
hobby: mountain bike, music
 




(since 1999-DEC-29)


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