High-impact winter weather significantly affects both nature and society. Its severity may not
decrease despite the growing global temperature, due to changes in atmospheric circulation in
a future climate. The proposed project aims to expand knowledge of high-impact winter weather
and, specifically, to evaluate threats associated with winter extremes that should be included in
the preparation of adaptation strategies. The project aims (i) to analyse temporal and spatial
variability of observed high-impact weather events over central Europe and their links to
atmospheric circulation and other variables, (ii) to evaluate the ability of current EURO-CORDEX
regional climate models to simulate high-impact weather events and their links to
circulation, and (iii) to assess changes of those events in possible future climates in two sets of
model projections (forced by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways) for two periods
(2021–2050, 2071–2100). Added value of studying compound extreme events (e.g. the
combination of low temperature and high wind velocity) will be assessed.
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