Projects

Many complex process-based models are available in Europe to project future climate impacts. Yet, the current climate impact research community is fragmented, modeling mostly individual systems. The integration of climate impacts across different natural and societal sectors is only slowly emerging. Likewise, attribution of impacts to climate and other factors is still a strongly under-researched field given that climate change is already strongly manifesting itself, an increasing number of court cases dealing with climate impacts is being negotiated and policy debates on loss and damage are intensifying. This lack of coordination amongst impact modelers and insufficient awareness about impact attribution methods hampers important scientific and political progress and more coordination and networking is urgently needed. Therefore, PROCLIAS aims to develop common protocols, harmonized datasets and a joint understanding of how to conduct cross-sectoral, multi-model climate impact studies at regional and global scales allowing for attribution of impacts of recent climatic changes and robust projections of future climate impacts. The Action will do so by focusing on key interactions of climate impacts across sectors, their accumulated effect, especially of extreme events, the attribution of impacts to climate change and the quantification of uncertainties. PROCLIAS will make use of all COST networking tools to train young researchers to conduct and analyse multi-model simulations in a cross-sectoral way, to support a common platform for collecting impact model simulations and methods for analyzing them and to disseminate the data, code and results to scientists as well as, in a more synthesized form, to stakeholders.
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Weather and climate extremes are associated with large impacts on society and environment, and frequency of some of these extremes has increased and/or is projected to increase in a future climate. It is important to better understand physical mechanisms leading to extremes, their mutual links, and how they are reproduced in climate models. The project deals with temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, with focus on warm season. The main aims are to (i) examine the role of atmospheric circulation and land-atmosphere coupling in initiating development of temperature extremes and supporting their persistence in observed climate and ERA-5 reanalysis, including the study of links to extremes of precipition and other variables, (ii) analyze spatial patterns of differences between individual driving mechanisms (advective, radiative, and land-surface factors) in key regions of Europe, and (iii) evaluate ability of current high-resolution climate models to reproduce the driving mechanisms of extremes and their spatial patterns. This represents an important step towards better understanding credibility of climate model outputs, and for further model improvements.
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Monitoring space weather events is crucial. The EU-funded SafeSpace project aims to advance space weather nowcasting and forecasting capabilities, contributing significantly to the safety of space assets through the transition of powerful tools from research to operations. This will be achieved through the synergy of five well-established space weather models. SafeSpace hopes to improve radiation belt, culminating in a prototype early warning system for detrimental space weather events, integrating information all the way from the Sun to the inner magnetosphere. Working, also, with a major European space company, SafeSpace, hopes to define indicators of particle radiation of use to space industry and spacecraft operators.
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A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth\'s magnetosphere. It occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth. Predicting these storms is vital. This is the objective of the EU-funded PAGER project, which has assembled a team of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the United States. The project will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments. This will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a threat. The most advanced codes will be used, adapted to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications.  
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The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases affects the troposphere but even more the higher levels of the atmosphere, where it induces cooling. The first scenario of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere (mesosophere-thermosphere-ionosphere) was created by an international team in 2006 (Laštovička et al., 2006, Science). It has been improved but still it is not connected with trends in the stratosphere. Until recently the trends in the stratosphere and upper atmosphere were studied separately. The trends are affected also by other drivers, not only by greenhouse gases (mainly CO2), which change in time. The project is therefore focused on various aspects of trends in the stratosphere to improve possibilities of their comparison and joining with trends in the upper atmosphere, then on removing new problems in studying ionospheric trends, on specification of temporally varying roles of various non-CO2 trend drives, and on the main aim of the project, creation of the first joint scenario of long-term trends in the stratosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere system.
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High-impact winter weather significantly affects both nature and society. Its severity may not decrease despite the growing global temperature, due to changes in atmospheric circulation in a future climate. The proposed project aims to expand knowledge of high-impact winter weather and, specifically, to evaluate threats associated with winter extremes that should be included in the preparation of adaptation strategies. The project aims (i) to analyse temporal and spatial variability of observed high-impact weather events over central Europe and their links to atmospheric circulation and other variables, (ii) to evaluate the ability of current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models to simulate high-impact weather events and their links to circulation, and (iii) to assess changes of those events in possible future climates in two sets of model projections (forced by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways) for two periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100). Added value of studying compound extreme events (e.g. the combination of low temperature and high wind velocity) will be assessed.
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Links between weather and human health have been a subject of increased attention recently, but in spite of growing knowledge, many issues remain open. The main aims of the project are to (i) improve methodological aspects of modelling weather-related morbidity and mortality in the population of the Czech Republic using advanced statistical tools; (ii) identify susceptible population groups and examine modifying effects of characteristics such as age, health disorders, and education; (iii) identify differences in the susceptible population groups between urban and rural regions and in relation to socioeconomic status; and (iv) examine changes in weather-related morbidity and mortality over recent decades and their links to changes in the population structure, its socioeconomic status, diseases prevalence, and environmental factors. The project makes use of nationwide cause-specific mortality and morbidity data sets, and its results will allow for better understanding of the weather-to-human health links, which is necessary for preventing excess deaths.
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The main aim is development and testing of new features of the parametric spatial weather generator, so that it can be used to produce more realistic gridded weather series representing present and future climate conditions on various spatial and temporal scales. In completing the project aims (A) The surface weather generator will be linked with generator of modes of circulation variability, which will allow to account for the advection of spatial surface weather patterns and effect of the larger scale circulation on weather. (B) The nesting scheme will be developed to condition the high-resolution generator run on the smaller area with shorter time step on the lower-resolution generator. (C) The generator parameters will be modified with climate change scenarios, which will be derived from the Regional Climate Model simulations and account also for changes in temporal circulation variability and spatial weather variability. The generator will be validated using multiple climatological indices and its performance compared with other available gridded surface weather series.
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